Infectious Disease Modeling
感染症のモデリング
アジアの疾病率・死亡率の低下には大きな前進がみられるものの、感染症は引き続きアジアの
ヘルスケアシステムが直面する主要な課題である。非感染の病気についての課題も大きくなる中で、
多くの国ではHIVエイズ、結核、マラリアといった病気からの負担に苦しんでいる。
また、グローバル化が進行する世界の新たな感染症のリスク、例えば新型インフルエンザや、
これまでは感染がなかった地域への病気の拡散もある。当研究室では病気の拡散を予測する
最新の数学モデルを用いて、医療介入の有効性・コストとの兼ね合い、政府のワクチン政策の評価を行っている。
Although great progress has been made in reducing illness and mortality in Asia,
infectious diseases remain a key challenge facing health care systems in the region.
As Asia develops and faces the new challenge of non-communicable diseases,
many countries still suffer the burdens of illness and death due to HIV,
TB and malaria, and in a globalized world there is a great risk of new pandemics from influenza,
as well as the possibility of transmission of disease to previously unaffected nations
and population groups. The Department of Global Health Policy uses the latest techniques
in mathematical modeling to forecast disease growth, test the effectiveness
and cost-effectiveness of interventions, and assess government vaccination policies.
研究員 Researchers: Stuart Gilmour, Kenji Shibuya, Erika Ota スチュアート・ギルモー、渋谷健司、大田えりか
研究トピック Research Topics: Health Outcome Research, Health and Foreign Policy
Recent Publications
Shimizu K, Gilmour S, Mase H, Le PM, Teshima A, Sakamoto H, Nomura S. COVID-19 and Heat Illness in Tokyo, Japan: Implications for the Summer Olympic and Paralympic Games in 2021. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Mar 31;18(7):3620.
Amimo F, Lambert B, Magit A, Sacarlal A, Hashizume M, Shibuya K. Plasmodium falciparum resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine in Africa: a systematic analysis of national trends. BMJ Global Health 2020;5:e003217.
Parvej MS, Nakamura H, Alam MA, Wang L, Zhang S, Emura K, Kage-Nakada E, Wada T, Hara-Kudo Y, Nishikawa Y. Host range-associated clustering based on multi-locus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis, phylotypes, and virulence genes of atypical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli strains . Appl Environ Microbiol . 2019; 85: e02796-18.
Otsuki S, Nishiura H. Reduced Risk of Importing Ebola Virus Disease because of Travel Restrictions in 2014: A Retrospective Epidemiological Modeling Study. PLOS ONE2016;11(9): e0163418.
Kondo H, Soda M, Sawada N, Inoue M, Imaizumi Y, Miyazaki Y, et al. Smoking is a risk factor for development of adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma in Japanese human T-cell leukemia virus type-1 carriers. Cancer Causes and Control. 2016; 27(9): 1059-1066.
Nah K, Otsuki S, Chowell G, Nishiura H. Predicting the international spread of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). BMC Infectious Diseases. 2016; 16:356
Nakaoka S, Iwami S, Sato K. Dynamics of HIV infection in lymphoid tissue network. Journal of Mathematical Biology. 2016; 72(4):909–938.
Nishiura H, Endo A, Saitoh M, Kinoshita R, Ueno R, Nakaoka S, Miyamatsu Y, Dong Y, Chowell G, Mizumoto K. Identifying determinants of heterogeneous transmission dynamics of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak in the Republic of Korea, 2015: A retrospective epidemiological analysis. BMJ Open. 2016;6(2):e009936.
Kinoshita R, Nishiura H. Assessing herd immunity against rubella in Japan: a retrospective seroepidemiological analysis of age-dependent transmission dynamics. BMJ Open. 2016; 6(1): e009928.
Iwami S, Takeuchi JS, Nakaoka S, Mammano F, Clavel F, Inaba H, Kobayashi T, Misawa N, Aihara K, Koyanagi Y, Sato K. Cell-to-cell infection by HIV contributes over half of virus infection. eLIFE 4. 2015: e08150.
Nishiura H, Kinoshita R, Miyamatsu Y, Mizumoto K. Investigating the immunizing effect of the rubella epidemic in Japan, 2012-14. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2015; 38:16-18.
Kakizoe Y, Morita S, Nakaoka S, Takeuchi Y, Sato K, Miura T, Beauchemin CA, Iwami S. A conservation law for virus infection kinetics in vitro. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 2015; 376(7): 39-47.
Kakizoe Y, Nakaoka S, Beauchemin CA, Morita S, Mori H, Igarashi T, Aihara K, Miura T, Iwami S. A method to determine the duration of the eclipse phase for in vitro infection with a highly pathogenic SHIV strain. Scientific Reports. 2015; 5: 10371.
Tago K, Kikuchi Y, Nakaoka S, Katsuyama C, Hayatsu M. Insecticide applications to soil contribute to development of Burkholderia mediating insecticide resistance in stinkbugs. Molecular Ecology. 2015;24(14): 3766-3778.
Dong Y, Huang G, Miyazaki R, Takeuchi Y. Dynamics in a tumor immune system with time delays. Applied mathematics and computation. 2015;252: 99-113