東京大学医学系研究科 国際保健政策学 東京大学 The University of Tokyo

Department of Global Health Policy

Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo

Infectious Disease Modeling

感染症のモデリング

アジアの疾病率・死亡率の低下には大きな前進がみられるものの、感染症は引き続きアジアの
ヘルスケアシステムが直面する主要な課題である。非感染の病気についての課題も大きくなる中で、
多くの国ではHIVエイズ、結核、マラリアといった病気からの負担に苦しんでいる。
また、グローバル化が進行する世界の新たな感染症のリスク、例えば新型インフルエンザや、
これまでは感染がなかった地域への病気の拡散もある。当研究室では病気の拡散を予測する
最新の数学モデルを用いて、医療介入の有効性・コストとの兼ね合い、政府のワクチン政策の評価を行っている。

Although great progress has been made in reducing illness and mortality in Asia,
infectious diseases remain a key challenge facing health care systems in the region.
As Asia develops and faces the new challenge of non-communicable diseases,
many countries still suffer the burdens of illness and death due to HIV,
TB and malaria, and in a globalized world there is a great risk of new pandemics from influenza,
as well as the possibility of transmission of disease to previously unaffected nations
and population groups. The Department of Global Health Policy uses the latest techniques
in mathematical modeling to forecast disease growth, test the effectiveness
and cost-effectiveness of interventions, and assess government vaccination policies.

研究員 Researchers: Stuart Gilmour, Kenji Shibuya, Erika Ota スチュアート・ギルモー渋谷健司大田えりか
研究トピック Research Topics: Health Outcome Research, Health and Foreign Policy

Recent Publications

Otsuki S, Nishiura H. Reduced Risk of Importing Ebola Virus Disease because of Travel Restrictions in 2014: A Retrospective Epidemiological Modeling Study. PLOS ONE2016;11(9): e0163418.

Read the Article →

Kondo H, Soda M, Sawada N, Inoue M, Imaizumi Y, Miyazaki Y, et al. Smoking is a risk factor for development of adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma in Japanese human T-cell leukemia virus type-1 carriers. Cancer Causes and Control. 2016; 27(9): 1059-1066.

Read the Article →

Nah K, Otsuki S, Chowell G, Nishiura H. Predicting the international spread of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). BMC Infectious Diseases. 2016; 16:356

Read the Article →

Nakaoka S, Iwami S, Sato K. Dynamics of HIV infection in lymphoid tissue network. Journal of Mathematical Biology. 2016; 72(4):909–938.

Read the Article →

Nishiura H, Endo A, Saitoh M, Kinoshita R, Ueno R, Nakaoka S, Miyamatsu Y, Dong Y, Chowell G, Mizumoto K. Identifying determinants of heterogeneous transmission dynamics of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak in the Republic of Korea, 2015: A retrospective epidemiological analysis. BMJ Open. 2016;6(2):e009936.

Read the Article →

Kinoshita R, Nishiura H. Assessing herd immunity against rubella in Japan: a retrospective seroepidemiological analysis of age-dependent transmission dynamics. BMJ Open. 2016; 6(1): e009928.

Read the Article →

Iwami S, Takeuchi JS, Nakaoka S, Mammano F, Clavel F, Inaba H, Kobayashi T, Misawa N, Aihara K, Koyanagi Y, Sato K. Cell-to-cell infection by HIV contributes over half of virus infection. eLIFE 4. 2015: e08150.

Read the Article →

Nishiura H, Kinoshita R, Miyamatsu Y, Mizumoto K. Investigating the immunizing effect of the rubella epidemic in Japan, 2012-14. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2015; 38:16-18.

Read the Article →

Kakizoe Y, Morita S, Nakaoka S, Takeuchi Y, Sato K, Miura T, Beauchemin CA, Iwami S. A conservation law for virus infection kinetics in vitro. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 2015; 376(7): 39-47.

Read the Article →

Kakizoe Y, Nakaoka S, Beauchemin CA, Morita S, Mori H, Igarashi T, Aihara K, Miura T, Iwami S. A method to determine the duration of the eclipse phase for in vitro infection with a highly pathogenic SHIV strain. Scientific Reports. 2015; 5: 10371.

Read the Article →

Tago K, Kikuchi Y, Nakaoka S, Katsuyama C, Hayatsu M. Insecticide applications to soil contribute to development of Burkholderia mediating insecticide resistance in stinkbugs. Molecular Ecology. 2015;24(14): 3766-3778.

Read the Article →

Dong Y, Huang G, Miyazaki R, Takeuchi Y. Dynamics in a tumor immune system with time delays. Applied mathematics and computation. 2015;252: 99-113

Read the Article →

Nishiura H, Chowell G. Theoretical perspectives on the infectiousness of Ebola virus disease. Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling. 2015;12:1.

Read the Article →

Chowell G, Nishiura H. Characterizing the Transmission Dynamics and Control of Ebola Virus Disease. PLoS Biology. 2015;13(1): e1002057. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1002057

Read the Article →

Chowell G, Nishiura H. Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease (EVD): a review. BMC Medicine. 2014; 12:196. doi:10.1186/s12916-014-0196-0

Read the Article →